Fertilizer Stocks: Mosaic’s 21.6% Rally Masks Persistent Sector Weakness

Mosaic delivered an exceptional weekly move, but that strength did not spread across the 17-security fertilizer-linked basket. The median stock fell, long-term trend participation remained weak, and deep drawdowns persisted.

Data: weekly close November 6, 2026 · 17 tracked securities · Equal-weight breadth statistics · 155 weekly observations in the accompanying sector summary history

1. A standout winner in a declining universe

During the week from October 30 to November 6, seven of the 17 securities advanced and ten declined. The group’s median return was −3.17%, while the mean was −3.14%. Mosaic (MOS) surged 21.59% and was the only name to gain more than 20%. Its surge stands in sharp contrast to losses of −21.89% for EuroDry (EDRY), −14.26% for Andersons (ANDE) and −13.63% for CVR Partners (UAN).

The breadth figures are important: 41.18% advanced, whereas 58.82% declined. Even the strongest weekly performer, MOS, finished the week below its own 200-day moving average. An isolated rally therefore should not be confused with a confirmed improvement in sector-wide trend strength.

2. Long-term breadth has not recovered

Only four of 17 securities (23.53%) closed above their 200-day moving averages. The figure is identical to the reading four weeks earlier: zero percentage-point improvement on the comparable 17-stock sample. The universe’s median distance to MA200 was −10.28%, suggesting that the typical stock still faces a meaningful gap before recovering its longer-term trend.

Notably, SMG, NTR, CF and EDRY were the four securities above MA200 in the underlying individual historical dataset. Being above MA200 does not ensure positive short-term returns: EDRY fell 21.89% during the week, despite remaining above that moving average.

3. Drawdowns: the damage remains widespread

The median drawdown from each security’s 52-week closing high was −31.38%, versus −30.44% a week earlier. Nine of the 17 stocks (52.94%) remained more than 30% below their respective 52-week highs. These figures point to a sector still working through considerable price damage, rather than a widely established advance.

4. Volume provides a more nuanced signal

Median relative volume increased to 1.22× from 0.87× a week earlier. Six securities registered relative volume of at least 1.5×. Four advanced over five sessions on elevated relative volume, compared with two that declined under the same condition. The median 20-session signed-volume balance improved from −9.25% to −2.12%, but remained negative, while only eight of 17 stocks (47.06%) had positive signed-volume balance. Selling pressure may have moderated, but broad-based accumulation is not yet established.

5. Complete 17-security weekly ranking

All 17 securities are included below, with no omissions. The ranking is ordered by weekly return by default, while the global rank is a separate score produced by the weekly analysis system. Searches, sorting and copy controls work locally in the browser.

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Dollar-denominated closing prices as supplied by the weekly ranking. Percent returns reflect the source files without adjustment. Global and weekly ranks are different measures; the universe is a curated fertilizer-linked basket and includes agribusiness-adjacent securities, rather than a pure-play fertilizer index.

Conclusion: participation must confirm the rebound

Mosaic’s 21.59% weekly advance is noteworthy, but it occurred alongside a negative median sector return, unchanged MA200 breadth and a median 52-week drawdown exceeding 31%. Volume improved in some areas without establishing broad buying pressure. For now, the evidence supports selective resilience, not confirmed sector leadership.

A rebound can begin with one stock. A durable sector trend needs participation.