Executive summary. Of 70 agriculture-related instruments, 38 advanced in the week ending October 16, 2026. Yet long-term breadth fell sharply over four weeks, from 55.71% to 30.00% above the 200-day moving average. A modest weekly rebound has not reversed the broader deterioration.
1. Weekly performance: gains with a weak underlying distribution
The agribusiness universe recorded 38 advances and 32 declines, a positive share of 54.3%. The median weekly return was +0.43%, while the equally weighted mean was −0.77%. This divergence reflects the influence of several large losses: FMC declined 32.22%, BGM Group 19.53%, and Charoen Pokphand Indonesia 13.51%. No instrument gained more than 10% during the week.
These observations describe a modest recovery across a narrow majority of instruments, rather than a decisive broad-based advance.
2. Market breadth: the central warning
Four weeks earlier, 39 of 70 instruments traded above their 200-session moving averages (55.71%). By October 16, that number had fallen to 21 (30.00%), a deterioration of 25.71 percentage points. The median distance from MA200 stood near −5.0%.
The rebound in weekly prices has therefore not restored long-term trend participation. A sustained recovery would require more securities to reclaim their MA200, rather than relying on isolated weekly gains.
3. Drawdowns: short-term stabilization, substantial historical damage
The median 52-week closing-high drawdown improved marginally from −19.72% to −19.34%. The number of instruments more than 30% below their 52-week highs declined from 17 to 16. Five of the 70 instruments were more than 50% below their 52-week highs.
Longer-horizon damage remains considerable. The median drawdown from the highest available historical close was −44.44%; 46 of 70 instruments were more than 30% below those highs and 29 were more than 50% below. These measures depend on the available price histories and are not equivalent to synchronized all-time-high comparisons.
4. Volume: selling pressure eases without broad conviction
Median five-session relative volume was 0.96 times its reference level. Only four instruments reached at least 1.5 times relative volume, compared with nine the previous week, suggesting limited participation in the rebound.
Meanwhile, median 20-session signed volume balance improved from −16.96% to −10.87%, and the share of instruments with positive balance increased from 21.4% to 31.4%. The selling imbalance moderated, but nearly seven in ten instruments still lacked a positive directional volume balance. This measure is not a direct estimate of institutional buying or selling.
5. Weekly leaders: selective strength
CF Industries (CF) led the weekly ranking with +8.35%, followed by Treasury Wine Estates (TWE.AX, +7.65%), Zoetis (ZTS, +6.11%), Nutrien (NTR, +5.60%), and Toro (TTC, +5.00%).
Their wider trajectories differed. CF Industries and Nutrien remained negative over four weeks despite strong weekly gains; Treasury Wine Estates was positive across one week, four weeks and three months. Zoetis rebounded but remained down approximately 37% year to date. A strong week should not automatically be interpreted as a confirmed long-term reversal.
6. Global ranking: leadership differs from weekly performance
The global ranking places Toro (TTC), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Neogen (NEOG), Deere (DE) and Darling Ingredients (DAR) in its top five positions. Neogen ranked third globally despite a small weekly decline, while CF Industries ranked first for the week but seventh globally.
These distinctions reflect different ranking horizons and should not be interpreted as buy recommendations. The published ranking reports the model outputs without disclosing proprietary scoring formulas.
7. Laggards and dispersion
The weakest weekly returns came from FMC (−32.22%), BGM Group (−19.53%), Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (−13.51%), Golden Agri-Resources (−12.50%) and SQM (−5.81%). FMC also fell 43.90% over four weeks and 60.53% year to date. BGM Group was down approximately 91.95% year to date despite a positive four-week return.
Such outliers explain why the mean weekly return was negative even though more than half the universe advanced. The exceptionally large reported four-week decline for NH Foods (2282.T) may reflect a corporate action or price-adjustment issue and should not be treated as an independently verified economic loss.
8. Interpretation: stabilization is not confirmation
Three developments coexist: a modest majority of weekly advances, some easing in directional selling pressure, and a sharp four-week deterioration in MA200 breadth. The evidence is consistent with tentative stabilization, not a confirmed sector-wide reversal.
For a stronger recovery case, we would look for sustained improvement in MA200 participation, a broader positive volume balance, and fewer securities extending their drawdowns. Conversely, continued weak breadth would leave the rebound vulnerable. These are conditional scenarios, not forecasts.
9. Methodology and limitations
Analysis covers 70 tracked agribusiness-related instruments, including companies, exchange-traded funds and other sector-linked securities, with observations through October 16, 2026. Weekly performance is summarized equally across instruments, not capitalization-weighted. Breadth measures the proportion trading above their 200-session moving averages. Relative volume compares recent activity with a historical reference; directional volume balance classifies volume by price direction over 20 sessions. Drawdowns use closing-price highs, and historical coverage may differ by instrument. Comparisons are not a reconstructed point-in-time index. The rankings are quantitative research outputs, not investment advice.
10. Complete Agribusiness ranking — 70 instruments
Weekly rank, global rank, last close and returns over one week, four weeks, three months and year to date. Search by ticker or company and sort on either device.
Read our public methodology and limitations. Data through 16 October 2026. Independent research for information only.