Copper Stocks: MA200 Distance Hits a 156-Week Low as Breadth Falls to 15%
Copper-related equities weakened again in the week ending November 6. The median security lost 2.06%. More importantly, only 15.00% of eligible securities remain above their 200-day moving average (MA200), and median distance to MA200 has fallen to −15.50%—its most negative reading in our 156-week historical sample.
1. Selling remains widespread
Of 101 instruments, 33 advanced, 65 declined and three were unchanged. The average weekly return was −2.13%, close to the −2.06% median. The breadth of negative weekly performance indicates that weakness was not driven solely by a handful of extreme decliners.
2. MA200 breadth: a four-week collapse
Participation above MA200 fell from 51.96% on October 9 to 15.00% on November 6. In the common 100-security comparison, the number above MA200 fell from 51 to 15 over four weeks, a 36-percentage-point deterioration. The current 15.00% is the second-lowest breadth reading in the available series, above only 14.44% in October 2023.
3. Distance to MA200: the deepest reading in 156 weeks
Median distance shifted from +11.10% on September 4 to −15.50% on November 6, a deterioration of 26.60 percentage points. Mean distance is −17.06%; both series are at their lowest observed levels in the 156-week dataset. This measures how far the typical stock trades below long-term trend, not merely whether it has crossed MA200.
Within the 100-stock calibrated sample, 28% fall below the historical P10 distance threshold (−23.23%), and 67% fall below the P25 threshold (−9.45%). No stock exceeds either the upper P75 or P90 distance thresholds. These thresholds describe the current cross-sectional extremes relative to calibrated history; they are not market-bottom signals.
Selected long-term relative-strength exceptions
| Company | Distance to MA200 |
|---|---|
| Cascadia Minerals | +30.46% |
| Element 29 Resources | +28.11% |
| Kantra Copper | +18.40% |
| Amerigo Resources | +15.48% |
| Anglo Asian Mining | +11.61% |
| Fitzroy Minerals | +8.27% |
Fifteen securities remain above MA200, though only six selected examples are shown here. A positive distance is an observed price relationship, not an assessment of intrinsic value.
4. Drawdowns remain deep
Of 99 securities with valid 52-week drawdown data, 70 (70.71%) are more than 30% below their 52-week closing high and 30 (30.30%) are more than 50% below. Median 52-week drawdown stands at −39.04%; 47.47% are more than 40% below their highs, up from 43.43% in the prior week.
Against peaks in each security's available history, median drawdown is −62.18%; 55.45% are over 50% below those peaks. Individual historical records differ in length, so these should not be interpreted as lifetime drawdowns.
5. Volume: selling pressure eases, but buyer participation remains scarce
Median relative five-session volume stands at 1.03 times its previous 60-session reference. Fourteen out of 100 securities recorded volume of at least 1.5 times reference; six rose and seven fell across the five-session return window. Median 20-session signed-volume balance improved from −30.70% to −24.98%, a 5.72-point improvement on a comparable basis.
Despite that improvement, only 10 of 101 securities show positive signed-volume balance, compared with 11 in the previous week. Heavy-volume declines in severely drawn-down stocks still outnumber comparable advances. Signed-volume calculations do not directly identify institutional buying or accumulation.
6. Relative strength and ranking concentration
The S&P 500 fell 2.68% during the week. The copper universe's median return therefore outperformed by 0.62 percentage points, and 55 of 101 securities beat the benchmark over one week. The longer-term comparison is weaker: only 10 outperformed over four weeks, with a median relative performance of −11.92 percentage points.
Leading weekly advances included Collective Mining (+29.21%), Midnight Sun Mining (+16.46%), Wanguo Gold Group (+15.30%), Al Masane Al Kobra Mining (+14.38%) and Edge Copper (+12.68%). Collective Mining still traded around 10.22% below MA200, while Midnight Sun Mining was approximately 48.34% below: strong weekly rebounds do not necessarily imply restored long-term trends.
The top five overall rankings are Amerigo Resources, Cascadia Minerals, Element 29 Resources, Sociedad Punta del Cobre and Koryx Copper. Amerigo remains +15.48% above MA200, Cascadia +30.46% and Element 29 +28.11%. The complete ranking below preserves all supplied global ranks, including missing values.
7. Scenarios and evidence to monitor
Stabilization: median MA200 distance stops deteriorating, drawdowns flatten and selling-volume pressure eases. Broader recovery: more stocks reclaim technical references, four-week relative strength strengthens and positive buying participation widens. Further deterioration: breadth remains depressed while MA200 distance and drawdowns deteriorate further. The data do not establish probabilities for these scenarios.
8. Conclusion
The sector's structure remains fragile. In four weeks, MA200 breadth fell from around 51% to only 15%, while median MA200 distance reached a new 156-week low. More than 70% of the valid sample trades over 30% below its 52-week closing high. Some volume measures suggest easing selling pressure, but broad buying participation is still missing.
The priority is to watch for stabilization in MA200 distance, improving breadth and broader buying participation. Oversold readings alone cannot confirm a sustainable recovery.
9. Complete weekly ranking · 101 instruments
This ranking includes every instrument from the original Weekly Analysis JSON: weekly rank, global rank, ticker, company, last close, 1W, 4W, 3M and YTD. Desktop search and nine-column ordering, mobile search and sorting, and complete tab-separated copy are available.
Loading complete ranking…
Methodology and limitations
This report describes the Structural Alpha Research COPPER universe, including copper miners, explorers, diversified companies and copper-related ETFs. It is not a direct measurement of copper spot prices or an index of pure-play miners. Valid sample sizes vary: 101 weekly returns, 100 MA200 distances and 99 52-week drawdowns. The historical universe composition and available histories have changed over time. Historical thresholds describe distribution, not expected returns. Company rankings are descriptive and not personalized investment advice.