Executive summary. Selling pressure spread across virtually the entire SIL–SILJ universe during the week ended October 16. Only six securities advanced, compared with 91 that declined.
The median weekly return was −5.64%, while fewer than three in ten companies with valid data remain above their 200-day moving average.
The deterioration is also evident in increasingly deep drawdowns and an increasingly negative directional volume balance.
The indicators confirm a broad-based correction, but they do not yet establish whether capitulation has occurred or whether the market is approaching a definitive bottom.
1. Weekly performance: selling dominates the sector
Of the 98 securities analyzed, 91 declined (92.86%), six advanced (6.12%), and one was unchanged.
The median weekly return was −5.64%. A total of 57 companies lost at least 5%, while 15 recorded declines of 10% or more.
Both reference ETFs ended the week in negative territory:
| Instrument | Weekly return |
|---|---|
| SIL | −5.01% |
| SILJ | −6.35% |
| S&P 500 | −1.95% |
SILJ's larger decline is consistent with more intense pressure on smaller-capitalization companies, although the two ETFs differ in composition and weighting.
Only 20 of the 98 securities outperformed the S&P 500 over the week.
Positive exceptions were scarce. Minera Frisco gained 4.58%, OR Royalties 2.04%, Artemis Gold 2.03%, Harmony Gold 1.42%, Royal Gold 0.77%, and Aris Mining 0.63%.
No security achieved a weekly gain of 5% or more.
2. Breadth: a sharp contraction over the past four weeks
Only 26 of the 97 securities with valid data, or 26.80%, are trading above their 200-day moving average.
On a matched sample of 96 securities, breadth has fallen from 54.17% to 27.08% over four weeks.
The median distance from MA200 stands at −12.29%.
This contraction is particularly significant because it measures participation across companies, rather than merely tracking a capitalization-weighted index.
A recovery driven exclusively by a handful of companies would not be sufficient to reverse the observed deterioration.
3. Drawdowns: losses deepen
Of the 96 securities with valid comparisons against their 52-week closing highs, 57 are more than 30% below those highs.
That represents 59.38% of the comparable universe, versus 55.21% the previous week.
More concerning is the progression of drawdowns exceeding 50%: the number of companies in that position rose from 18 to 25 in just one week.
| Indicator | Previous week | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Securities with drawdowns greater than 30% | 55.21% | 59.38% |
| Securities with drawdowns greater than 50% | 18.75% | 26.04% |
| Median 52-week drawdown | −34.05% | −36.19% |
In addition, 76 companies, or 79.17% of valid observations, have declined more than 20% from their highs.
Looking beyond the 52-week window to the highest closing prices across all available history, the median drawdown reaches −54.54%. This longer-horizon measure is not directly equivalent to the 52-week drawdown, but it provides perspective on the depth of accumulated losses over longer periods.
4. Volume: negative balance despite below-normal activity
Median five-session relative volume increased from 0.82× to 0.89×, although it remains below its reference level.
Only six securities recorded relative volume of at least 1.5×. Five declined and one advanced over the five-session window.
The median 20-session directional volume balance deteriorated from −17.09% to −21.26%.
Only 17 of the 98 companies retain a positive balance, equivalent to 17.35%, compared with 26.53% the previous week.
The combined reading is clear: although aggregate relative volume is not extraordinary, declining sessions continue to account for a predominant share of activity.
These indicators cannot identify the sellers, nor can they establish that broad-based capitulation has occurred.
5. Relative strength: an important divergence across time horizons
One of the study's most interesting findings is the difference between recent performance and the relative strength accumulated over the past several months.
Only five of the 98 securities, or 5.10%, outperformed the S&P 500 over the past four weeks.
Yet 58 companies, or 59.18%, still outperform it over a three-month horizon.
This suggests that the recent correction is rapidly eroding the relative strength that many companies had retained.
Several examples illustrate the dispersion:
- New Pacific Metals: −0.30% over the week, but +66.08% over three months.
- Sailfish Royalty: −1.25% over the week, but +65.34% over three months.
- Discovery Mining: −0.85% over the week, but +54.80% over three months.
These differences are not buy signals and do not necessarily anticipate a recovery, but they help identify where greater relative resilience persists.
6. Interpretation and scenarios
Quantitative observations. More than 90% of securities declined during the week. Breadth above MA200 has contracted substantially, drawdowns are deepening, and the directional volume balance continues to deteriorate.
Interpretation. The correction in silver-related miners is widespread and increasingly deep. SILJ declined more than SIL over the past week, although that difference alone is insufficient to establish a lasting divergence between the two instruments.
Scenarios. More convincing stabilization would require breadth to stop deteriorating, the proportion of companies with deep drawdowns to decrease, and volume balance to improve across a growing number of securities.
Conversely, further deterioration in these indicators would be consistent with a correction that has not yet run its course.
Neither scenario can be considered confirmed by the available data.
The main conclusion is that pockets of relative strength remain in the sector, but they coexist with very widespread internal deterioration. A recovery in a few companies must not be confused with a recovery across the market as a whole.
7. Methodology and limitations
The SIL–SILJ universe comprises 98 securities, including the reference ETFs and mining companies and precious-metals-related instruments of different sizes, exposures and jurisdictions.
It is not a capitalization-weighted portfolio and does not precisely replicate the ETFs' constituents.
MA200 breadth uses 97 valid observations; its matched four-week comparison uses 96. The 52-week drawdowns are calculated using 96 valid securities.
Relative volume compares the most recent five sessions with the preceding 60, while directional volume balance uses a 20-session window.
The rankings reproduce the original quantitative classifications and do not constitute personalized investment recommendations. See also the public methodology.
8. Complete SIL–SILJ company ranking — 98 securities
Weekly rank, global rank, last close and returns over one week, four weeks, three months and year to date. Search by ticker or company and sort on either device.
Read our public methodology and limitations. Data through 16 October 2026. Independent research for information only.