Market Perspectives · Quantitative evidence · Published October 22, 2026

The Great Mining Divergence: 189 Securities, One Correction, Radically Different Outcomes

From January 29 to October 21, 2026, 163 of 189 instruments in the combined GDX–GDXJ and SIL–SILJ research universe finished with negative returns. The median return was −24.1%, but the range of outcomes was extraordinary.

Observation window: January 29 – October 21, 2026 · Research universe: combined GDX–GDXJ and SIL–SILJ dataset · 189 security rows

189Security rows
163Negative returns (86.2%)
−24.1%Median return
−43.3%Median maximum drawdown

What the data measure

This analysis covers the 189 rows drawn from the combined workbook supplied for the two mining research universes. Each instrument is measured from its January 29, 2026 closing price to its last available close, generally October 21, 2026 (one observation ends October 19). The maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough closing-price decline observed within that window, not necessarily the decline from January 29. Current drawdown measures the decline from the highest closing price in that same period to its final close.

Observed: 26 rows generated a positive total return, while 163 recorded negative returns. The median return was -24.13%; the median maximum drawdown was -43.43%. These figures describe this specific research sample, not the entire global mining industry.

Gold, silver and mining equity benchmarks

ETFReturnMaximum drawdown
GDX-19.69%-38.93%
GLD-23.58%-26.40%
SIL-26.44%-39.50%
SLV-50.50%-52.43%

In this dataset, the gold-backed GLD declined 23.58% while the silver-backed SLV declined 50.50%, a difference of approximately 26.9 percentage points. GDX declined 19.69%; SIL declined 26.44%. GDXJ and SILJ do not appear as separate ticker rows in the supplied workbook and therefore no returns are reported for them here.

Interpretation: metal price exposure, mining-equity exposure and individual security selection produced very different outcomes during the same broad correction. This does not establish which approach will outperform next.

The leading securities

Panoro Minerals led the return ranking at +164.0%, followed by Sailfish Royalty (+86.2%) and New Pacific Metals (+68.6%). Importantly, leaders were not free of volatility: Benz Mining gained 56.6% over the measured period despite a 48.3% maximum intraperiod drawdown.

TickerSecurityReturnMax. drawdown
PML.VPanoro Minerals+164.00%-32.99%
FISH.VSailfish Royalty Corp.+86.17%-26.84%
NEWP.KNew Pacific Metals+68.59%-41.19%
LGD.TOLiberty Gold Corp+66.67%-41.21%
BNZ.AXBenz Mining Corp CDI+56.55%-48.30%
AYA.TOAya Gold & Silver+46.24%-41.38%
MI6.AXMinerals 260+46.00%-41.62%
OM.TOOsisko Metals+40.71%-34.19%
BYN.VBanyan Gold Ord Shs Class A+40.34%-36.42%
WDO.TOWesdome Gold Mines+26.45%-25.42%

The weakest securities

At the opposite end, Manuka Resources declined 76.8%, followed by Bunker Hill Mining (−67.1%) and Guanajuato Silver (−63.2%). A large price decline alone did not signal that selling had ended.

TickerSecurityReturnMax. drawdown
MKR.AXManuka Resources-76.82%-78.18%
BNKR.TOBunker Hill Mining-67.12%-67.87%
GSVR.VGuanajuato Silver Co Ltd-63.19%-63.74%
TMQTrilogy Metals Inc.-62.90%-62.90%
HYMC.OHycroft Mining Holding-62.54%-70.68%
ARD.AXArgent Minerals-62.00%-62.00%
SVL.AXSilver Mines-60.71%-60.71%
NFGC.KNew Found Gold Corp-60.43%-66.59%
ASE.VAsante Gold-60.39%-67.63%
BRMS.JKBumi Resources Minerals-58.50%-60.55%

Complete interactive ranking — all 189 security rows

The table below contains 189 entries after removing an identical duplicate ticker record. Search by ticker or security name, sort any of the seven fields, or copy the full dataset as tab-separated text for analysis.

Loading ranking…

Methodology and limitations

Return = percentage change between the first and final available closing prices in the fixed study window. Maximum drawdown is computed from the rolling intraperiod closing-price peak. Current drawdown compares the period peak with the final close. Price data are taken from the supplied study workbook and have not been independently revalidated against exchange data.

The dataset includes exchange-traded funds and securities listed in multiple markets. The 189 entries represent instruments or listings rather than necessarily 189 distinct underlying companies. Prices and returns are recorded in each instrument's quoted currency; return percentages are comparable, while absolute prices across currencies are not. Inclusion reflects the supplied combined research universe, which may be affected by constituent selection, survivorship, missing price histories, currency differences, adjusted-price conventions and corporate actions. Two additional instruments (SIND.K and VGC.TO) were excluded from the source workbook for histories beginning too late.

The sample is historical and descriptive, not an investable backtest. It does not account for trading costs, tax, execution, or prospective selection. Its observed winners cannot be identified retrospectively as proof of a forecasting rule. For broader terminology see the public methodology.

Interpretation and what to watch next

The breadth of negative returns suggests that this was not an isolated company-specific event. Yet the considerable dispersion across individual returns underscores why investors distinguish sector direction, relative strength and risk management. Scenario, not prediction: if mining equities recover, some of the securities displaying relative resilience may attract renewed interest, but the study does not establish the timing or identity of future leaders.

Continue exploring

GDX–GDXJ research archive · SIL–SILJ research archive · Recent mining breadth research